India's e-commerce industry is expected to almost triple to $345 billion by 2030 from $125 billion in 2024, driven by the swift rise of quick commerce and the integration of artificial intelligence (AI), according to a report published by research consultancy firm on Wednesday.
The report titled 'Smart Growth in a Fast Market' from research consultancy Infisum forecasts that the market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.4 percent through 2030.
The report notes that the nation’s dark store network is projected to almost triple, rising from 2,525 locations in 2025 to around 7,500 by 2030, in order to accommodate the growing demand for ultra-fast deliveries.
"India's e-commerce sector is entering a transformative phase of growth and innovation, with the market projected to nearly triple from $ 125 billion in 2024 to $ 345 billion by 2030.
Quick commerce is currently the most rapidly expanding category in India’s e-commerce landscape. The report noted that this segment, projected to be worth approximately $65–70 billion by 2030, is expected to account for 45–50 per cent of the additional growth in e-retail over the next five years.
In the fast-growing quick commerce sector, Blinkit holds the top position with a 44 per cent market share, having fulfilled 900 million orders in FY26. Zepto and Swiggy Instamart follow, with market shares of 25 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively.
The report highlights Gen Z as a key engine of expansion, already representing close to one-third of online consumers. By 2030, this group is projected to become the nation’s largest segment of digital spenders.
Moreover, growth is extending beyond major metropolitan regions, with 66 per cent of new direct-to-consumer (D2C) orders now coming from Tier II and Tier III cities.
By the close of the decade, e-commerce is projected to represent 10–12 per cent of India’s overall retail expenditure and contribute 2.5 per cent to the national GDP, catering to an estimated 420–440 million online consumers.
From a technological standpoint, artificial intelligence and machine learning are expected to boost retail productivity by 35–37 per cent by 2030.
Developments like conversational commerce, AI-driven shopping assistants, and virtual try-on tools are significantly reshaping how consumers discover products and make purchasing decisions.
