COVID-19 India: Second wave may peak by mid-April, according to scientists
New Delhi: Scientists in India have predicted that the current second-wave of novel coronavirus around the country could peak by mid-April, following which the cases may witness a steep lowdown by the end of May.
The scientists made this conclusion using a mathematical model.
During the first wave of COVID-19 infections across India, the mathematical approach, titled SUTRA, predicted that the primary surge of infections in August would go up by September and lower in February 2021.
Scientists, including Manindra Agrawal from Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, applied the model to study the trajectory of the current spike in infections and found that the number of daily new infections is likely to peak in mid-April.
"For the last several days, we have found that there is a reasonable chance that the cases in India could peak sometime between 15-20 April. It is a sharp slope, but on the way down, it would likely be equally sharp, coming down very fast and by end of May may see a dramatic reduction," Agrawal was quoted by saying by PTI.
"There is some uncertainty in predicting the peak value of daily new infections because of the sharp rise. Currently, it is coming to 1 lakh infections per day, but this can go up or down. But the timing remains the same between April 15-20," he informed.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday chaired a high-level meeting to review COVID situation in the country as India reported 93,249 new cases in one day, the highest single-day spike since September last year, taking the total to 1,24,85,509.
All senior officers including Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba, Principal Secretary to PM PK Mishra, Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan, and Vinod Paul, NITI Aayog member and Chairman of government's empowered group on COVID management are participating in the meeting.
India has been recording a sudden spike in cases over past three weeks. Daily cases the country peaked on September 16, last year, with 97,894 people testing positive for the virus in a single day.
The active cases have now increased to 6,91,597 comprising 5.54 per cent of the total infections, while a total of 1,16,29,289 patients have recovered in the last 24 hours with the recovery rate reported to 93.14 per cent, according to the Union Health Ministry reports.
The active caseload was the lowest at 1,35,926 on February 12 and comprised 1.25 per cent of the total infections.
A total of 11,66,716 samples tested for Covid-19 as of Saturday taking the total sample tests so far 24,81,25,908.
The Centre has advised high-burden states and union territories to take stringent measures for containment of the surge. Maharashtra, Punjab, Karnataka, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Chandigarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Haryana are the states of grave concern.
People in India are fearing about the new lockdown in multiple regions.
