India is on track to experience its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades, with seasonal rainfall projected to end up around 15% below the long-term average—the most deficient level since 2009—according to two senior officials from the meteorological department, reported by Reuters.
The subdued monsoon may reduce agricultural production, push food prices higher, and restrain rural earnings in the world’s fifth-largest economy, where monsoon rains account for roughly 70% of the nation’s yearly precipitation.
Insufficient rainfall during September, a critical month for crop maturation, could reduce the yields of summer-sown crops like cotton, soybean, corn, and pulses, while also diminishing soil moisture required for winter-sown crops such as wheat and rapeseed.
We are observing El Niño’s influence on monsoon rainfall, and its effects are expected to intensify in September, potentially resulting in a rainfall shortfall in the double digits," said a senior official at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), who requested anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to the media.
India could receive 15% below-average rainfall, or 85% of normal, during the June-September season, which would be the lowest rainfall since 2009, he said.
That would be almost twice the 8% shortfall anticipated in the weather department’s initial forecast.
Apart from a few eastern states, most regions of the country are expected to see below-normal rainfall in September, further increasing the seasonal deficit, he said.
The IMD is likely to release its official September forecast at the end of this month.
The monsoon this year may start retreating from northwestern regions of the country a few days earlier than usual next month, unless a new weather system forms, according to a second source in the weather department who requested anonymity in accordance with official protocols.
The monsoon season typically begins in June and starts retreating from the northwestern parts of the country around September 17, finishing its withdrawal across the entire nation by mid-October.
They said that El Niño is growing stronger and is expected to intensify further in September, which will likely reduce rainfall over India.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It disrupts global weather systems and can lead to drier conditions in parts of Southeast Asia and other affected regions.
In the past, India has experienced below-average rainfall during most El Nino years, sometimes leading to severe droughts that destroyed crops and forced authorities to limit the export of some grains.
Since the monsoon season began on June 1, India has recorded 13% less rainfall than the long-term average. In June, rainfall was 35.4% below normal, but a 1% surplus in July provided a short-lived respite. The monsoon weakened again in August, with rainfall to date running 15% below the seasonal average.
