Tensions on the India-Pakistan border are escalating rapidly as fresh screen grabs taken just hours ago reveal significant Pakistan Air Force (PAF) activity near the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir. Military analysts and security experts warn that these movements likely indicate Pakistan is preparing for a major operation, raising fears of a potential conflict flare-up in the volatile region.
The LoC, a heavily militarized de facto border between India and Pakistan in Kashmir, has witnessed frequent ceasefire violations and skirmishes over the years. However, the latest surge in PAF deployments and air sorties suggests a more serious escalation is underway, possibly in retaliation to recent Indian counter-terrorism operations or as a prelude to aggressive posturing.
U.S. intelligence reports have long monitored South Asian conflict scenarios, noting Pakistan’s history of provocative military actions near the LoC, including the infamous Kargil intrusion of 1999. The current spike in aerial activity echoes past patterns where Pakistan’s air force mobilized before cross-border strikes or attempts to destabilize Indian-controlled Kashmir
Since early April 2025, there have been multiple ceasefire violations and infiltration attempts by Pakistani troops along the LoC, particularly in sectors like Poonch and Krishna Ghati. Indian forces have responded with measured but firm retaliation, thwarting infiltration and planting of explosives by militants supported by Pakistan-based groups. The increased PAF activity now adds a dangerous aerial dimension to this already volatile ground situation.
Pakistan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) protocols have tightened, with enhanced security checks and increased airspace monitoring to guard against Indian air operations. Aviation experts warn that the risk of misidentification and accidental engagements has risen sharply, especially with the deployment of advanced drones and surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems on both sides.
The strategic implications of this buildup are profound. Airspace over Kashmir is a complex and contested zone, with civilian and military flights at risk amid heightened hostilities. The closure of certain flight information regions (FIRs) over Afghanistan and Pakistan further complicates air traffic routing, increasing operational hazards for commercial and military aircraft alike.
Diplomatic channels remain tense, with India and Pakistan scheduled for flag meetings to address infiltration and ceasefire violations, but trust remains fragile. Pakistan’s repeated use of 27 launchpads along the LoC to support militant infiltration underscores the persistent threat despite ceasefire agreements.
Experts caution that any miscalculation in the coming days could trigger a wider conflict, potentially involving air strikes and cross-border artillery exchanges reminiscent of past crises. Both nations possess nuclear capabilities, adding a grave dimension to the risk calculus.
India’s government has reiterated its commitment to safeguarding national sovereignty and protecting its citizens from terror threats. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration continues to strengthen intelligence and defense readiness, while urging Pakistan to cease support for cross-border terrorism.
