Pune: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the country will experience above-average rainfall in September, with an expected rainfall exceeding 109% of the normal levels.
This prediction comes after rainfall in August met the seasonal average. Maharashtra, including regions like Vidarbha and Konkan, is particularly expected to see higher than usual rainfall, according to Dr. Mrutyunjay Mahapatra, Director General of IMD.
Historical data from 1971 to 2020 shows an average rainfall of 167.9 mm in September. However, this year, as of August's end, India recorded 7% more rainfall than usual, with Maharashtra seeing a significant 26% increase.
Most parts of the country are set to receive above-average rainfall in September, except for certain areas in extreme northern India, the interior of the southern peninsula, northeastern states, northern Bihar, and parts of Uttar Pradesh. Higher rainfall is expected in Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and other central and northern regions.
Temperature predictions indicate that both maximum and minimum temperatures will likely remain above average across much of the country. Favorable conditions for rainfall are expected to develop throughout the month.
Due to the anticipated good rainfall in Rajasthan, the monsoon withdrawal may commence later than usual. The exact timing of the monsoon’s retreat will become clearer by mid-September, though no official forecast has been issued yet.
The current state of the Pacific Ocean is neutral (ENSO Neutral), and while La Niña conditions are expected to develop between September and November, they are not expected to impact the southwest monsoon season.
However, the northeast monsoon could feel some effects. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to remain at normal levels during September.
In Maharashtra, good rainfall is expected throughout most of the state, with areas like South Central Maharashtra and southern Marathwada likely seeing average to below-average rainfall, whereas Vidarbha, Konkan, and other parts will see above-average precipitation.
Successive low-pressure systems forming in the Bay of Bengal are expected to create favorable conditions for rainfall in September. In recent years, monsoon withdrawal has been delayed, and this year, the pattern may become clearer by mid-month.
