In the four months since the heads of the two leading global powers last convened, Xi Jinping has presided over a sharp increase in China’s international trade, while Donald Trump has faced declining approval ratings domestically.
Analysts say this reversal of fortune has dampened expectations for their summit in Washington this week, with Xi in no hurry to offer concessions and Trump limited by an expensive war with Iran that has damaged both his approval ratings and Americans’ finances.
Although sensitive topics such as Taiwan may arise, the primary focus of the September 24 meeting is whether the leaders will indicate support for extending the trade truce agreed upon last year, which prevented a significant disruption to the global economy.
White House officials have worked to temper expectations for significant progress.
On Sunday in New York, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng led preliminary discussions intended to lay the groundwork for possible agreements on AI safeguards and trade in non-sensitive goods.
Since reaching a truce with Xi in October of that year, his focus has been split across numerous other foreign policy conflicts, ranging from the wars in Iran and Ukraine to clashes with Europe over free speech.
China has confronted its own difficulties, including weakening domestic demand and a prolonged property downturn, yet the export powerhouse that Trump tried to rein in has continued to surge, in what economists are increasingly calling China Shock 2.0.
China’s global trade surplus is on track to exceed $1 trillion for the second consecutive year.
The Trump administration believed that intense, one-sided pressure would compel China to make concessions, but that outcome never materialized, said Scott Kennedy, a specialist in U.S.-China economic relations at the Washington-based think tank CSIS.
"Now this is Xi Jinping's world, and we are all living in it."
Trump told reporters that during their meeting in Beijing in May, Xi repeatedly questioned him about Taiwan, focusing on arms sales and Washington’s commitment to defending the island.
The US president referred to the proposed $14 billion arms deal for Taiwan as a “negotiating chip” with Beijing.
Some authorities in Taipei and Tokyo fear he might be inclined to trade that chip for political gains before November’s midterm elections, which could be difficult for his Republican Party.
China-US relations have grown increasingly transactional, said Wu Xinbo, a professor at Shanghai’s Fudan University who advises China’s foreign ministry.
He noted that while Washington may seek to focus on trade negotiations, Beijing is likely to view the US stance on Taiwan as pivotal.
"If you address our concerns over the Taiwan question, then we would be prepared to address your concerns on other matters, whether in law enforcement or in buying US agricultural products," Wu said.
Washington also views Xi as uniquely positioned to pressure Iran to help end the war, which has pushed Trump's approval rating to the lowest point of his political career..
Yet Xi has demonstrated scant willingness to take that step. Earlier this month, Reuters reported that Beijing has been exporting goods worth billions of dollars to Iran via a sanctions-evading arrangement. China’s foreign ministry maintains it has no knowledge of any such scheme.
For Trump, that focus is Iran. For Xi, it is strengthening China’s internal resilience in preparation for whatever follows Trump.