The equation is simple, the stakes are sky-high, and the math is... well, it’s a bit of a headache. With Royal Challengers Bengaluru already waiting in the final and Gujarat Giants locked into the Eliminator, only one spot remains.
| Team | Played | Points | Net Run Rate (NRR) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Bengaluru | 8 | 12 | +0.??? | Qualified (Final) |
| Gujarat Giants | 8 | 10 | -0.271 | Qualified (Eliminator) |
| Mumbai Indians | 8 | 6 | +0.146 | In the Waiting Room |
| Delhi Capitals | 7 | 6 | -0.164 | Must Win |
| UP Warriorz | 7 | 4 | -1.146 | Needs a Miracle |
For Jemimah Rodrigues and her squad, the path is the most straightforward.
Scenario: Beat UP Warriorz by any margin.
Result: DC moves to 8 points, jumping ahead of Mumbai Indians (6 points) to finish third and secure a date with Gujarat Giants in the Eliminator.
After their loss to Gujarat on Friday, Harmanpreet Kaur’s side is at the mercy of the results tonight.
Scenario: UP Warriorz must beat Delhi Capitals.
The Catch: Since a UPW win puts MI, DC, and UPW all on 6 points, MI needs the margin of UPW's victory to be small enough that MI's superior NRR (+0.146) isn't overtaken.
Result: MI is currently the favorite to qualify if DC loses, as they hold a massive NRR cushion.
Meg Lanning’s team is technically still alive, but they essentially need to rewrite the record books tonight.
Scenario: Beat Delhi Capitals by approximately 156 runs (if batting first) OR chase down the target in less than 2 overs.
Result: They would tie MI and DC on 6 points and potentially jump from 5th to 3rd on NRR.
If you're keeping a calculator handy during the game, watch these specific margins:
To overtake MI: UPW needs a swing of roughly 170 runs in their favor tonight.
To overtake DC: UPW needs to win by 65+ runs (scoring 180) or chase the target with 7.5+ overs to spare.MI's Safety Net: Even if MI loses their lead, they stay ahead of DC as long as DC doesn't lose by more than 45 runs or with 30 balls to spare.
The Delhi Capitals control their own destiny. If they win, the "Big Three" of 2026 (RCB, GG, DC) is finalized. If they stumble, Mumbai Indians will likely sneak through the back door unless the Warriorz produce the single greatest statistical anomaly in cricket history.