Pune, 16th May 2026: As summer heat continue to cause inconvenience to people across several parts of the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has offered some relief with this year's monsoon forecast.
The southwest monsoon, which accounts for almost 80% of annual rainfall, is likely to make its onset over Kerala by May 26 this year, marking an earlier-than-usual arrival of the rainy season in India.
Typically, the monsoon reaches Kerala around June 1. However, IMD has indicated that favourable weather conditions could help the monsoon advance a few days earlier through the Kerala coast. The arrival date may vary by nearly four days depending on changing atmospheric conditions.
The weather department has also indicated that Maharashtra is likely to witness the arrival of monsoon around June 5 if the current progress continues as expected.
According to IMD, conditions are becoming favourable for the monsoon to advance into the southern Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands within the next 24 hours. Heavy to very heavy rainfall has also been forecast over parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and south Karnataka during the next three to four days.
While the monsoon may arrive early, IMD has predicted below-normal rainfall for the country this season. India is expected to receive nearly 92 percent of its long-period average rainfall between June and September, which is slightly lower than normal seasonal rainfall levels.
The department clarified that the forecast regarding the monsoon’s onset over Kerala is based on preliminary weather models and may change depending on developments in the coming days. Officials said weather systems are being closely monitored before issuing further updates.
