India’s monsoon is forecast to deliver below-average rainfall across the country’s western and southern regions over the next two weeks, following heavy showers along the west coast this week, which could slow the planting of cotton, soybeans, and corn, according to two senior weather officials.
The monsoon provides roughly 70% of India’s yearly rainfall, replenishing vital water reserves in the nearly $4 trillion economy, where almost half of the farmland lack irrigation and around half of the population depends on agriculture for their income.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to remain unfavourable over the coming two weeks, and the likelihood of any low-pressure system forming during this time is also minimal,” S. D. Sanap, a scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told Reuters. “
As a result, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala are expected to experience rainfall that is below the normal level.
An MJO is an eastward-moving system of clouds, rainfall, and winds that travels around the tropical regions every 30 to 60 days. It plays a crucial role in short-term monsoon behavior, with its active phase increasing rainfall and its inactive phase frequently leading to dry periods.
India recorded June rainfall that was 39.8% below the long-term average, and the IMD has also predicted that July will see rainfall levels remaining below normal.