Pune, 8th July 2026: After witnessing nearly a week of intense rainfall since July 2, Maharashtra is likely to see a significant reduction in rain activity from Friday, July 10. Mumbai, Konkan, western ghats, and parts of Nashik, Pune and Satara have experienced heavy rain over the past week, while the rest of the state recorded moderate to heavy showers.
Weather experts now indicate that rainfall intensity will gradually decline across the state.
From July 10 to July 19, most parts of Maharashtra, except Mumbai and the Konkan coast, are expected to witness a prolonged break in rainfall. Even in Mumbai and Konkan, heavy rain is likely to ease, with only light showers expected during this period. While cloudy skies will continue, prolonged heavy rainfall is unlikely over most regions.
The expected reduction in rainfall is linked to changes in large-scale weather systems. The monsoon trough, which plays a major role in supporting rainfall over Maharashtra, is likely to shift further north towards Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. At the same time, the offshore trough along India's west coast is expected to weaken.
Additionally, the upper-air low-pressure system currently bringing widespread rainfall over eastern India is forecast to move northwest before weakening over southern Rajasthan. As these systems weaken or shift away, the strong monsoon winds from the Arabian Sea reaching Maharashtra are also expected to lose strength, resulting in reduced rainfall for nearly 10 days.
Although rainfall is expected to decrease, clear sunny skies are unlikely across the entire state. Most regions will continue to experience a mix of cloudy conditions and intermittent sunshine.
Depending on local geography, some places may receive longer sunny spells. Day temperatures during this period are expected to remain around 28°C to 30°C, which is slightly below the seasonal average.
The southwest monsoon normally covers the entire country by July 8, but this year it is yet to reach parts of northwestern Rajasthan. The monsoon to cover the remaining areas by around July 10, adding that timely advancement of the monsoon generally supports favourable rainfall during the rest of the season.
The weather pattern after July 20 remains uncertain. Rainfall prospects during the third week of July will depend on the formation of fresh weather systems, which are expected to become clearer around July 17.
The southwest monsoon usually covers the entire country by July 8, but this year it is yet to reach parts of northwestern Rajasthan.
Meteorologists expect the monsoon to advance over the remaining areas by July 10, completing its coverage of the country. Timely advancement is generally considered favourable for the remaining monsoon season.
Despite the expected reduction in rainfall, experts believe there is no immediate concern regarding water storage. July and August are the most important months for replenishing groundwater, rivers and reservoirs through sustained monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats.
Recent rains have already initiated water storage across dams and reservoirs, and water levels are expected to improve further by the end of the monsoon season in October.
Weather experts added that if any major atmospheric changes occur, updated forecasts will be issued accordingly.