India's southwest monsoon has effectively stalled just days after advancing into large parts of the country, with satellite imagery showing the near-total absence of monsoon cloud cover over peninsular and central India and national rainfall falling 64 per cent below normal between June 4 and June 15.
Data released by the India Meteorological Department shows the country received 19.2 mm of rainfall in the eleven days between June 4 and June 15, against a seasonal normal of 53.7 mm for the same period. The IMD's rainfall departure map for the period shows deficient to large deficient rainfall across vast stretches of central, southern, and eastern India.
What Satellite Images Show
Imagery captured by the INSAT-3DS weather satellite on June 15 makes the slowdown visually stark. Instead of the broad, active cloud band typically associated with an advancing monsoon, most of peninsular and central India appeared largely cloud-free. Cloud activity was confined to the Himalayan region, northeastern India, and areas north of the Indo-Gangetic plains. The Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon appeared weak and fragmented.
Why the Monsoon Has Stalled
Meteorologists say the monsoon slowdown is not being caused by a lack of moisture, as both the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal continue to hold adequate moisture. Instead, the disruption is linked to upper-atmospheric conditions. A southward shift in the westerly jet stream is interfering with the easterly jet that normally supports cloud formation and widespread rainfall across India.
As a result, rainfall has remained limited despite favourable moisture levels. Weather experts describe the situation as a temporary but significant monsoon pause and expect rainfall activity to improve later this week as atmospheric circulation patterns begin to normalise.
El Niño Confirmed
The IMD formally announced the onset of El Niño conditions this week, adding a longer-term dimension to the rainfall concern. El Niño, a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has historically been associated with below-normal monsoon rainfall in India. The IMD's revised seasonal forecast projects total monsoon rainfall at 90 to 95 per cent of the Long Period Average for the June to September season, with the possibility of falling below 90 per cent. The World Meteorological Organisation has placed an 80 per cent probability on El Niño strengthening through August.
Monsoon Continues to Advance Geographically
Despite the sharp rainfall deficit, the IMD confirmed on Monday that the monsoon had advanced further into remaining parts of Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, as well as additional areas of Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, and Bihar.
The department said conditions remain favourable for further advancement into more parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, and Bihar over the next four to five days, though geographical advance does not necessarily translate into meaningful rainfall until atmospheric conditions stabilise.