New Delhi: Shortly after being declared the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) nominee for the Bankipur by-election, JSP founder Prashant Kishor described the contest as a referendum on the leadership of Bihar Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary. He further called on voters to treat the poll as an opportunity to deliver a message to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
On Monday, Kishor delivered a major setback to the ruling party by winning Bankipur, a traditional BJP bastion that is currently represented by its national president Nitin Nabin and was previously held by his father, Kishore Prasad Singa, who secured multiple victories there from 1995 until his death in 2006.
For the BJP, the outcome comes against the backdrop of student demonstrations led by the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP). Analysts believe this will influence the broader political narrative. They note that Kishor succeeded in attracting support from both young voters and the middle class, groups that had largely been backing the BJP. Moreover, they argue that the results should serve as a warning for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), as Kishor has eroded the traditional Muslim-Yadav vote base.
Kishor secured 64,151 votes, while Sinha finished second with 44,827 in the closely contested race. RJD’s Rekha Gupta trailed in third place with 14,273 votes. The constituency has a total of 3.79 lakh registered voters. ThePrint looks at the factors that helped Kishor post a shock win in Bankipur.
Dent in RJD votebank
Kishor secured 64,151 votes, drawing substantial support not only from the RJD but also from the BJP. For example, Rekha Kumari had received 46,363 votes (29.83 percent) in the 2025 Bihar elections, compared to just 14,273 votes on Monday. Likewise, Nabin had obtained 98,299 votes (63.25 percent), whereas Sinha received only 44,827 votes.
It is evident that the Muslim and Yadav vote base has moved from the RJD to Prashant Kishor. Kishor succeeded in attracting support from the Muslim community and has weakened the M-Y formula. Muslims account for about 10 percent of the electorate and Yadavs 8 percent," said Law Kumar Mishra, a Patna-based senior journalist with more than forty years of experience.
At the same time, he maintained that the impact was greater among Muslims. "Kishor secured the bulk of support from the Muslim vote bank, though there was also a minor shift among Yadav voters."There was a feeling amongst the Yadavs and Muslims that RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav was not campaigning effectively, according to him.
He undertook a two-day roadshow, yet spent the majority of that period outside the country. He was also entirely missing from the Monsoon session of the Legislative Assembly. A substantial portion of the Yadav community came to feel that it was ‘Jan Suraaj’, rather than the RJD, that posed the real challenge to the BJP. This is exactly why a segment of the Yadav vote bank moved towards Jan Suraaj.
A JSP functionary pointed out that there was already resentment among the Muslims regarding Tejashwi.
During the assembly elections, the Mahagathbandhan put forward Extremely Backward Class (EBC) leader Mukesh Sahani as a candidate for Deputy Chief Minister but did not name any Muslim leader for the position, something the community remembered well. Jan Suraaj then focused its efforts in areas such as Sabzibagh and managed to secure a substantial share of the Muslim vote, he explained.
A senior BJP leader noted that some Muslim voters believed supporting the RJD would be futile because the party had little chance of winning. They felt that backing the RJD would amount to wasting their vote and concluded that, to effectively oppose the BJP, they needed to support Jan Suraaj instead. The leader added that PK’s persistent criticism of the BJP, rather than Tejashwi, was also a significant factor in shaping this perception.
The leader stated that, apart from Kushwahas and Kayasthas, all other castes voted in large numbers for the JSP. Over 15 percent of the electorate in the constituency are Kayasthas, the community to which Nabin belongs. The constituency also includes a significant upper-caste population of Bhumihars.