Governments throughout the Middle East are preparing for a possible surge in violence after Iran asserted it had obtained intelligence indicating that the United States was planning to resume airstrikes against the Islamic Republic.
In what may signal rising tensions ahead of this week’s UN General Assembly in New York, Donald Trump abruptly ended a weekend trip to the Camp David presidential retreat on Sunday without any official explanation, and the US State Department issued a new security alert to all American citizens in the region.
Keeping his options open, Trump reportedly told a Fox News reporter that “very big things are going to be happening in the not-so-distant future,” explaining that the possibilities he was weighing included “wiping Iran out, letting them rot economically or making a deal.”
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps cautioned that if an attack occurs, “all US bases and interests in the region will become targets of continuous, effective and painful attacks without any limitations or considerations.”
Iran’s leadership also warned that certain retaliatory actions might target US naval units in the Indian Ocean, while accusing several Gulf leaders of “double-dealing” for allegedly approving the US strikes.
The recent surge in sabre-rattling seems to have been triggered by strikes on the Saudi capital, Riyadh, carried out by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.
Saturday’s barrage marked the first sustained assault on the capital’s Aramco oil installations since the Saudi-Houthi ceasefire collapsed in June.
Riyadh claimed its forces intercepted the missiles, yet local images show smoke billowing from the Aramco site. The port of Yanbu, a key hub for Saudi oil exports, was also attacked.
The United States largely views the Houthis as an Iranian proxy force and contends that the group’s assaults on Riyadh would not occur without Tehran’s consent, a charge that Iran rejects.
Oil prices have retreated in recent days even as conflict has intensified, with traders anticipating a rebound in energy exports from Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer. Brent crude futures fell 1.7% to $102.15 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate declined 1.8% to $98.46.
Despite U.S. efforts to increase oil movements through the Strait of Hormuz, prices are expected to stay elevated, according to a Saturday report from Eurasia Group analysts.
They noted that any recovery in oil shipments would still fall short of resolving the broader supply shortfall and projected Brent crude to remain in a higher trading range of $90 to $110 per barrel for the remainder of the year.