Samsung Electronics is expected to post a sharp jump in second-quarter earnings, with analysts forecasting an 18-fold rise in operating profit from a year earlier. The surge is being driven by strong demand for AI memory chips and a continued shortage of supply, which has pushed memory prices higher, according to an LSEG survey of analysts.

The world's largest memory chipmaker by sales is set to report its earnings guidance on Tuesday, with analysts projecting an operating profit of around 86 trillion won ($56.35 billion) for the April-June period, up sharply from 4.7 trillion won a year earlier. If confirmed, the figure would mark a third straight quarter of record operating profit for the company, reflecting a persistent memory chip shortage as AI inference infrastructure demand continues to outstrip global supply growth. Analysts expect the memory market to stay undersupplied at least through next year.

The surge is being felt across the industry. Analysts see potential delays to AI infrastructure investment as the biggest risk to the current memory boom, with JPMorgan noting that while investors largely agree memory supply and demand fundamentals remain tight, many question whether AI memory's rapidly rising share of cloud service providers' capital expenditure, estimated at 52% this year and expected to top 70% next year , is sustainable.

Both Samsung and domestic rival SK Hynix remain heavily exposed to the AI spending cycle. Any slowdown in AI investment could impact both companies, even as they commit trillions of won to expand chip manufacturing capacity in South Korea.

Samsung said in April that it had signed multi-year supply agreements with customers seeking to secure memory inventories. Analysts expect pricing momentum to continue, with DRAM and NAND prices projected to rise further in the coming quarter due to strong demand from both AI and traditional data centres.

The rising memory prices are also affecting Samsung's mobile business, where higher component costs are putting pressure on margins despite recent smartphone price increases. Analysts believe additional price hikes may be needed later this year.