India may experience approximately 15,800 extra deaths linked to heat, with a margin of error of about 1,600, between September 2026 and February 2027, as the ongoing ‘Super El Niño’ triggers unusually high temperatures.
This projection, released on Wednesday (September 23, 2026) by the Climate Impact Lab, is calculated relative to the average conditions recorded during the same months from 1996 to 2025.
Worldwide, the report anticipates 451,000 additional deaths linked to extreme heat in the first six months of the El Niño episode, with 239,000 of those expected between September 2026 and February 2027.
It estimates 19,300 deaths in Indonesia; 19,400 across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia; 13,300 in Brazil; and 66,800 in the Sahel, a 5,000-kilometre belt spanning roughly 10 African countries, including Senegal, the Gambia, and northern Nigeria.
This report enables decision-makers to pinpoint precisely where immediate emergency measures can be implemented to save tens of thousands of lives in the months ahead, said Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago.
The report characterises the current phenomenon as a ‘Super El Niño’, an informal label typically applied to exceptionally intense El Niño events.
El Niño arises when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm, disrupting atmospheric circulation and altering global rainfall and temperature patterns.
Forecasts issued earlier this month indicated a greater than 90% probability of a very strong El Niño during the northern hemisphere’s autumn and winter, with sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific already more than 3°C above the long-term norm.
Its impacts are already visible across various regions.
Indonesia has seen conditions that favour wildfires, while parts of Central America have suffered agricultural losses due to drought.
“This year’s El Niño is also a ‘postcard from our future’, bringing temperatures that climate change is expected to produce about 20 years from now.
In this sense, it provides a preview of what is to come if no new investments are made in adaptation,” an accompanying press statement said.
In India, the southwest monsoon is now in its withdrawal phase after a season of below-average rainfall. As of September 22, 2026, national rainfall was about 15% lower than normal, with even greater deficits recorded in the southern and eastern regions of the country.
The study’s projected mortality figure, however, is subject to methodological constraints.
According to the Climate Impact Lab, it applies previously derived temperature–mortality relationships across 24,378 regions to seasonal temperature forecasts, incorporating factors such as local climate conditions, population vulnerability, and adaptive capacity.
The report does not disclose the specific numerical relationships or coefficients that link a given temperature rise to an estimated number of deaths; it notes that complete methodological details will be provided in an upcoming peer-reviewed publication.
Earlier studies have shown a link between extreme heat and death.
A 2024 multi-city analysis reported that heatwaves were tied to higher all-cause mortality in 10 Indian cities, and a global assessment estimated that India was responsible for roughly 20.7% of heatwave-related excess deaths between 1990 and 2019.
Total deaths are generally higher in more populous countries because more people are at risk, though population size by itself does not determine the overall impact.
Factors such as temperature, levels of vulnerability, age distribution, and the ability to adapt are also crucial.
This year’s summer heatwave across much of Europe claimed at least 36,000 lives, even though the direct influence of El Niño is less pronounced there than in tropical regions.
Earlier this week, 188 Indian scientists and ecologists urged broader monitoring of El Niño’s impact on India’s marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems.
The statement noted, “We must mobilise resources immediately to develop, implement, and assess preparedness and planning tools that will protect lives in the years to come.”
