Pune, 28th July 2026: According to weather scientists, the record-breaking rainfall witnessed across Konkan and Central Maharashtra during July was driven by a combination of El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean and an unusually warm Arabian Sea.
Experts say the interaction of these factors supplied large amounts of moisture to low-pressure systems, resulting in exceptionally heavy rainfall across several parts of Maharashtra while leaving other parts dry.
The Maharashtra-Gujarat border town of Umargam recorded 1,064 mm of rainfall within 24 hours on July 23, while Lonavala received more than 1,200 mm of rain in just two days during the first week of July.
Despite only two low-pressure systems forming this monsoon season, Konkan has received 3% above-normal rainfall, while Central Maharashtra has recorded 22% excess rainfall.
According to senior IMD scientist Dr. Medha Khole, such extreme rainfall events are becoming increasingly common during the monsoon. She explained that powerful vertical cloud development continued for much longer than usual, allowing clouds to release unusually large amounts of rain over a short period. As a result, several places experienced rainfall that exceeded previous records.
Senior IITM scientist Dr. Roxy Koll said El Niño weakened the normal monsoon flow this year while increasing the temperature of the Arabian Sea. The warmer sea produced higher levels of moisture, continuously feeding low-pressure systems.
This sustained moisture supply, combined with long-lasting weather systems, triggered extremely heavy rainfall over the Konkan coast and the Western Ghats of Central Maharashtra.
He added that these moisture surges develop over a very small area and short time, making them difficult for existing weather models to predict accurately.
Scientists have cautioned that extreme rainfall events have increased nearly threefold across North Konkan, North Madhya Maharashtra and parts of Central India since 1950.
They stressed that governments should factor future extreme rainfall scenarios into disaster management plans and infrastructure development, considering the highest possible rainfall likely over the next 50 years rather than relying only on historical averages.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the season's first deep depression has formed over the Bay of Bengal and is expected to cross the coast near Haldia between North Odisha and West Bengal. At the same time, a cyclonic circulation remains active over the Konkan coast.
Because of these systems, the IMD has forecast widespread rainfall across Konkan, Goa and Central Maharashtra until August 2, Marathwada until July 31, and Vidarbha between July 28 and August 1, with heavy rain likely in several places during the period.
