Pune, 23 February 2026: In a major breakthrough for India’s climate science and agricultural planning, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune has developed a Decadal Climate Forecast System that can predict monsoon trends for up to the next ten years.
The Indian monsoon is the backbone of the country’s economy and agriculture. While seasonal forecasts are common, predicting variations over longer periods has always been challenging. IITM’s newly developed system marks a significant advancement by offering more reliable projections for one to ten years.
The technology is built on IITM’s existing Earth System Model and incorporates a wide range of environmental factors. These include land type, soil conditions, vegetation, sub-surface temperature, topography, atmospheric particles, greenhouse gases, ozone levels and solar radiation.
By integrating these elements, the system provides a more realistic assessment of rainfall patterns, temperature shifts and humidity levels.
According to the IITM report, the new forecasting framework has substantially reduced errors in climate projections. It offers improved clarity on expected rainfall across India’s core monsoon region and provides better insights into wind patterns and temperature fluctuations.
The system also analyses how climate cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans influence the Indian monsoon.
Researchers, however, acknowledged that further improvements are needed. They stated that greater precision is required in understanding sea surface temperature variations and the interaction between aerosols and clouds. Work in these areas will continue in future phases.
Until now, monsoon forecasts were largely limited to short-term or annual predictions. With the introduction of decadal forecasting, policymakers can now design long-term strategies for agriculture, reservoir planning, water resource management and drought mitigation.
The system is expected to strengthen disaster preparedness and improve climate resilience planning across sectors.
The research team behind the report includes scientists P. V. Rajesh, Rosimitha Panda, C. Gnanaseelan, Rahul Pai, Rashmi Kakatkar, Darshana Patekar, J. S. Deepa, A. G. Prajeesh, Amit Kumar Sharma, T. S. Fousia, Subrata Halder, Anila Sebastian, Anant Parekh and Saikat Pramanik.
This development is being viewed as a major step forward in India’s climate research capabilities, offering long-term scientific support for economic planning and environmental sustainability.
