Pune, 21st September 2026: The southwest monsoon has started its withdrawal from western Rajasthan, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Saturday. The withdrawal began two days later than the normal date of September 17.
At the same time, a low-pressure area has developed over the Bay of Bengal and is expected to strengthen over the next few days. Weather models indicate that the system could influence rainfall activity in Maharashtra during the coming week.
The IMD said an anti-cyclonic circulation is currently prevailing over western Rajasthan, while the region has recorded dry weather for five consecutive days. Satellite observations also show a decline in moisture over the area, indicating that the monsoon has started withdrawing.
The southern boundary of the withdrawing monsoon currently passes through Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi and Khajuwala. The monsoon is expected to withdraw from more parts of Rajasthan, as well as parts of Saurashtra, Kutch and Punjab, over the next three to four days.
A low-pressure area formed over the north Andaman Sea on Saturday night. It is expected to move northwest and could intensify into a depression by September 21.
According to current weather projections, the system may further strengthen into a deep depression by September 22 and move towards the south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts on September 23.
Some meteorological projections indicate the possibility of the system developing into a cyclone.
The IMD's preliminary GFS model suggests that the system could move inland after crossing the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh coast and travel towards Madhya Pradesh.
If this track develops, Maharashtra could receive widespread rainfall between September 25 and 28. Vidarbha and Marathwada may receive heavy rainfall at several places during this period.
The rainfall outlook will depend on the system's strength and movement over the next few days, and the IMD is expected to provide further updates as the system develops.