Pune, 14th July 2026: El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean is continuing to intensify, with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasting that it could reach its strongest phase in November.
According to the latest nine-month outlook, the climate phenomenon is expected to remain active until the beginning of spring next year before gradually weakening during March.
The CPC said sea surface temperatures across most parts of the equatorial Pacific are already at least 1°C above normal, while the eastern Pacific has recorded anomalies of around 2.7°C above average, indicating a strong and developing El Niño event.
Scientists noted that warm water continues to spread beneath the surface across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric conditions have also shifted in a way that typically strengthens El Niño, with stronger low-level westerly winds and upper-level easterly winds.
Increased cloud formation over the eastern Pacific, along with reduced convection near Indonesia, further confirms that the event is becoming more intense.
Based on multiple forecast models, El Niño is expected to reach its peak during October to December, with the highest intensity likely in November, when ocean temperatures could remain 2 to 2.5°C above normal. Most models indicate that the event should begin weakening after November, though it is expected to persist into early 2027.
Meanwhile, Maharashtra is likely to witness mostly dry weather over the coming week as the monsoon trough has shifted north of its normal position. At the same time, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a weather system that influences tropical rainfall, is currently active over the Pacific Ocean, reducing rainfall activity over the state.
However, weather models indicate that conditions may change later this month. A possible low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal could trigger rainfall between July 22 and July 24 across parts of Konkan, Vidarbha, North Maharashtra and Marathwada, bringing a temporary revival of monsoon activity in these regions.