Monday, 18th May 2026: This year southwest monsoon is arriving earlier than its usual time, bringing relief from intense summer heat. The monsoon reached the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16 and is expected to arrive in Kerala by May 26, ahead of its schedule.
However, alongside this positive news, concerns have emerged over the possible impact of El Niño on India’s rainfall this year. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the country may receive nearly 8 percent below-average rainfall this year due to the developing El Niño conditions.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon linked to unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming affects global weather systems and changes normal wind and rainfall patterns across many countries, including India.
Under normal conditions, cold ocean currents flow along the western coast of South America. During El Niño, these cold currents weaken and are replaced by warmer ocean waters, disrupting atmospheric circulation across the Pacific region.
The Indian monsoon depends heavily on the temperature and pressure difference between land and ocean. Normally, strong trade winds push warm ocean water toward Asia, helping moisture-rich clouds develop over the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea.
During El Niño, these winds weaken and the Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than usual. This disturbs global air circulation, especially the Walker Circulation, which plays a major role in monsoon formation.
| El Niño Year | Rainfall (% of LPA) | Monsoon Status |
|---|---|---|
| 1972 | 77.70% | Severe Drought |
| 1982 | 88.60% | Deficient |
| 1987 | 85.70% | Major Deficit |
| 1991 | 98.60% | Near Normal |
| 1997 | 100.20% | Normal |
| 2002 | 79.10% | Severe Drought |
| 2004 | 87.90% | Deficient |
| 2009 | 81.70% | Severe Drought |
| 2015 | 87.30% | Deficient |
| 2023 | 95.00% | Below Normal/Near Normal |
As a result, India often experiences weaker monsoon activity during El Niño years. This can lead to reduced rainfall, delayed monsoon onset, long dry spells between rains, higher temperatures, and heatwave-like conditions in several regions. Rain-fed agricultural areas are usually the most affected.
La Niña is considered the opposite phase of El Niño. In La Niña conditions, Pacific Ocean waters become cooler than normal, strengthening trade winds and often supporting a stronger monsoon in India.
During La Niña years, the country generally receives above-normal rainfall. However, excessive rainfall and flood-like situations can also occur in some states due to stronger monsoon activity.