After two rounds of group-stage matches, Argentina have moved to the top of the latest AI-driven World Cup projections, overtaking pre-tournament favourites Spain and first-round leaders France.
The FIFA World Cup 2026 is underway across the United States, Canada and Mexico, and the latest data from the Opta Analyst supercomputer suggests the tournament's balance of power has shifted significantly since the competition began.
Following the second round of group-stage fixtures, Opta's simulation model has recalculated its forecasts and now ranks defending champions Argentina as the most likely winners of the tournament. The team's title probability has risen from 10.4% before the tournament to 15.46%, following two strong performances, including a victory over Algeria in which Lionel Messi scored a hat-trick.
Before the tournament began, reigning European champions Spain were considered the favourites to lift the trophy, ahead of France, England and Argentina.
After the first round of matches, however, France moved to the top of the projections following a convincing win over Senegal. The model gave Les Bleus a 24.59% probability of reaching the final, along with a 76.08% chance of progressing to the Round of 16 and a 52.08% likelihood of making the quarter-finals.
The latest update has since pushed Argentina ahead of France, while Spain have dropped to third place with a 12.48% probability of winning the tournament.
Opta's pre-tournament forecast, based on 25,000 simulations, gave Spain a 16.1% chance of winning the World Cup, with France, England and Argentina all assigned title probabilities above 10%.
A separate model developed by researchers at the University of Liverpool's Management School also favoured Spain, projecting an England-Spain final and giving La Roja a 26.1% chance of lifting the trophy, compared with England's 17%.
The Liverpool model also identified Norway's Erling Haaland and Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal as the leading contenders for the Golden Boot, projecting both players to score an average of 5.2 goals during the tournament.
The tournament has already produced a record-breaking opening round. A total of 75 goals were scored across the first 24 group-stage matches, an average of 3.13 goals per game, the highest-scoring opening round in World Cup history.
Five teams have also been eliminated after just two rounds of matches: Panama, Turkey, Tunisia, Jordan and Haiti.
Despite the extensive modelling behind these forecasts, analysts note that the tournament remains highly unpredictable. In Opta's 25,000 simulations, Australia won the World Cup 28 times and Scotland emerged victorious on 22 occasions, highlighting the uncertainty inherent in knockout football.
With the group stage nearing its conclusion, the supercomputer's projections are expected to continue evolving. For now, however, the data suggests Argentina are the leading contenders to become the first team since Brazil national football team to successfully defend a World Cup title.