cThe crucial Assembly elections in Bihar concluded on Tuesday evening with an unprecedented voter turnout. Both parties have forecasted a decisive win, while Prashant Kishor, considered the 'X factor' in the elections, is confident that his party, which is just over a year old, will become a preferred 'alternative' for Bihar. Exit polls have now shown a clear advantage for the NDA, with the Opposition INDIA bloc lagging significantly behind.
The NDTV Poll of Polls suggests that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is anticipated to secure an impressive 152 seats. The Mahagathbandhan is predicted to trail significantly with just 84 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party, led by Prashant Kishor, appears to have had little impact, as exit polls forecast it will win only two seats.
On Tuesday evening, the analysis considered three distinct exit polls, integrating data gathered through various sample sizes and methods. This combined forecast helps to mitigate individual poll biases or inaccuracies, offering a more comprehensive indication of probable election results.
What do the exit polls forecast?
Hyderabad-based Peoples Pulse indicates that the NDA holds a significant advantage with 133 to 159 seats and a robust 46.2% share of the vote. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan is projected to secure between 75 and 101 seats, and Jan Suraaj is expected to gain 0 to 5 seats.
DV Research forecasts that the NDA is likely to establish the government with a seat count ranging from 137 to 152. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure between 83 and 98 seats. Jan Suraaj is projected to win 2 to 4 seats, while other parties are anticipated to gain between 1 and 8 seats.
JVC's exit poll indicates that the NDA is projected to secure 142 seats, the MGB is expected to win 95 seats, JSP is anticipated to get 1 seat, and other parties are predicted to obtain 5 seats.
The Matrize exit poll survey suggests that the NDA is likely to secure between 147 and 167 seats, ensuring a comfortable majority. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan is expected to win between 70 and 90 seats, as per Matrize's projections.
According to the Dainik Bhaskar exit poll, the NDA is expected to secure between 145 and 160 seats in the elections. The MGB is anticipated to win 73 to 91 seats, while other parties are projected to gain 5 to 10 seats. Dainik Bhaskar indicates that Jan Suraaj is not expected to win any seats.
According to exit poll data from People’s Insight, the NDA is expected to secure between 133 and 148 seats, while the MGB is projected to win 87 to 102 seats, and the JSP might gain 0 to 2 seats. Other parties are anticipated to win between 3 and 6 seats, as per People’s Insight data.
What is the number of seats needed to establish a government?
The 243-seat Bihar Assembly elections were conducted in two stages. Vote counting is set to begin on November 14, with the results being declared that day. To establish the next government in Bihar, the victorious party or alliance must win a minimum of 122 seats.