Pune, 22nd August 2026: Maharashtra is likely to experience below normal rainfall over the next two weeks, until September 4, with significant variations across regions.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected mainly in Thane, Palghar, Mumbai, Mumbai Suburban, Raigad, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Nagpur, Bhandara, Gondia, Gadchiroli and Chandrapur. However, even in these districts, rainfall is expected to remain around the seasonal average.
In Nandurbar, Dhule, Jalgaon, Nashik, Ahilyanagar, Pune, Satara, Sangli, Kolhapur and Solapur, along with most of Marathwada and parts of Vidarbha, rainfall is likely to remain below normal. These areas may receive only scattered and light showers.
The delayed use of irrigation, partly because farmers were waiting for rainfall and partly due to concerns that irrigation followed by heavy rain could damage crops, has left some Kharif fields under moisture stress.
With rainfall expected to remain below average during the next two weeks, farmers with access to irrigation can consider providing water to crops based on field conditions rather than waiting for rainfall.
Farmers who had already started irrigation in anticipation of a weaker rainfall phase are currently reporting better crop conditions, particularly in sugarcane, maize, soybean, groundnut and vegetable crops.
Rain-dependent Kharif crops are entering a crucial stage. The August-September period was already considered a vulnerable phase for rain-fed crops when sowing began in June and July.
The current dry spell is being linked to the expected influence of El Niño, which can increase the risk of rainfall deficiency during the later part of the monsoon.
Farmers without assured irrigation will therefore need to closely monitor soil moisture and crop conditions, particularly in areas where rainfall remains scattered.
The possibility of below-average rainfall is expected to continue into September. The forecast of increasing El Niño intensity during the later part of the monsoon remains a concern.
A weaker September rainfall could affect the final phase of Kharif crops and may also influence soil moisture and water availability for the upcoming Rabi season.
The overall situation will depend on how rainfall is distributed in the coming weeks. Farmers with irrigation facilities are likely to have greater flexibility, while rain-fed farmers may face higher risks if the dry spell continues.