The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has delivered a much-awaited and positive forecast for Maharashtra’s monsoon in 2025: the state is set to experience above-normal rainfall, with several regions; especially Marathwada, southern Maharashtra, and Vidarbha, likely to witness even excess downpours this season. This prediction comes as a major relief for the largely rain-dependent agricultural sector and for millions of residents facing water scarcity.
According to IMD’s long-range forecast, the southwest monsoon rainfall across India is expected to be 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±5%. For Maharashtra, the forecast map shows most areas in the “above-normal” category, and key agricultural belts like Marathwada and Vidarbha are marked for high chances of excess rainfall.
Meteorologists attribute this optimistic outlook to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, as well as below-normal snow cover in the northern hemisphere; factors historically linked to stronger Indian monsoons.
Last year, Maharashtra had already received 26% excess rainfall between June and September, and this year’s forecast suggests a repeat or even better performance. The monsoon is expected to begin around June and last until mid-September, with detailed updates on onset and progress to be issued after May 15.
IMD officials emphasize that while this seasonal forecast is promising, short-range and region-specific advisories will be crucial for farmers and local authorities as the season progresses.